Analysis by Sky Island AI - Based in Tucson, Arizona
Project Blue Tucson Data Center Impact Dashboard
Economic impact calculator based on Net Local Impact methodology
Project Blue is a large-scale data center campus proposed by developer Beale Infrastructure for a 290-acre site in the Tucson area, intended for an undisclosed major technology client. The project plans to invest billions in construction and equipment, creating temporary construction jobs and permanent operational jobs, while also funding an 18-mile extension of the reclaimed water system. However, the proposal has drawn significant criticism from local officials and residents over the lack of transparency and the potential strain on local water and energy resources in a desert community.
This dashboard creates interactive projections of the resource utilization and financial impact of Project Blue on Tucson taxpayers and ratepayers using public industry data and economic modeling techniques.
Share of Local Resources & Economy
Adjust sliders below to update
% of Water
💧 0.00%
% of Electricity
⚡️ 0.00%
% of Economy
💰 0.00%
Many details about Project Blue are unknown. Drag the sliders below to see how different possibilities could change the ultimate impact on Tucson's resources and economy. Click on the labeled reference points to explore the possibilities based on the developer's claims and other industry data.
💧
WATER USE
0% of Tucson Water Delivery
Project Blue will use drinking water for the first 2 years, claiming an eventual transition to "100% renewable water resources, primarily reclaimed water" via a new 18-mile pipeline. Most data centers in the U.S. use millions of gallons of potable water, so this claim is difficult to evaluate.
⚡️
ELECTRIC USE
0% of TEP's Total Retail Delivery
0% of TEP's Residential Delivery
🏗️
PROJECT SCALE
Construction Investment
Equipment Investment
💰
LOCAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Annual Local Spending
Electric Rate ($/MWh)
$100
Marginal Cost of Power ($/MWh)
$180
NET LOCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
Electric Impact (Annual)
Total Tax Revenue from Electric+$0
Cost Passed to All TEP Customers-$0
Net Electric Impact$0
Water Impact (Annual)
Taxes on Water Bill+$0
Water's True Economic Cost-$0
Net Water Impact$0
Fiscal Impact
Equipment Tax Break Cost-$0M/yr
Other Tax Revenue+$0M/yr
SHARE OF LOCAL RESOURCES & ECONOMY
Scale: Bars extend to 125% of resource; vertical line marks 100%
% of Water Delivery0.00%
100%
% of Retail Electricity Delivery0.00%
100%
Annual Ongoing Economic Activity0.000%
100%
For every $1,000 of Tucson's economy, Project Blue represents $0.00
NET LOCAL IMPACT
$0
per year (ongoing)
Construction Period Local Benefit
$0M
0.00% of economy
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Methodology & Key Sources
Core Formula
This dashboard calculates the Net Local Impact (NLI) of Project Blue on the Tucson community using the formula:
NLI = Net Fiscal Impact + Net Utility Impact (Electric + Water)
Electric Impact Model
The electric impact compares what the facility pays for power versus the true marginal cost of providing that power:
Net Electric = Total Tax Revenue - Ratepayer Cost Passthrough
Where Total Tax Revenue includes both the tax on what the data center pays plus the tax on any costs passed to ratepayers.
Price Paid: $80-140/MWh based on TEP Large General Service rates
Optimistic: 70% solar @ $40/MWh + 20% battery @ $200/MWh + 10% gas @ $150/MWh = $143/MWh
Realistic: 50% solar @ $40/MWh + 30% battery @ $220/MWh + 20% gas @ $180/MWh = $182/MWh
Conservative: 30% solar @ $40/MWh + 40% battery @ $240/MWh + 30% gas @ $200/MWh = $228/MWh
Important Note: These marginal cost estimates exclude network upgrades, transmission costs, permitting costs, and environmental compliance costs
Tax Rate: 8.7% combined TPT (5.6% state + 2.6% city + 0.5% county)
Water Impact Model
The water impact uses an "economic value" methodology to capture the true economic value of water, measured in Million Gallons per Day (MGD):
Net Water = (Water Bill × 2.6% Tax Rate) - ((Economic Value - Market Price) × Annual Usage)
Potable Water Price: $1,594.30/AF (Tucson Water base industrial rate - excludes summer surcharges)
Potable Economic Value: $4,500/AF (economic modeling assumption based on: $800/AF new supply cost + $700/AF opportunity cost + $3,000/AF drought resilience value)
Tax Rate: 2.6% (City of Tucson TPT only)
Water Delivery Baseline: Tucson Water delivered 78.6 MGD of potable water in 2024 (91.6 MGD total including reclaimed)
Note: Project Blue will use potable water for the first 2 years, claiming an eventual transition to "100% renewable water resources, primarily reclaimed water" via a new 18-mile pipeline.
Construction vs. Equipment
Construction: Building the facility creates local jobs and procurement. ~48.9% stays in the local economy as wages and materials
Equipment: Servers and cooling systems purchased from outside Tucson. ~5% stays local during construction (installation labor). Equipment gets an 8.7% tax exemption under Arizona's Certified Data Center program for 20 years when the project qualifies as a "sustainable redevelopment project" through LEED or similar green building certification
Note: Both Google and Meta build their data center campuses to LEED Gold standards or higher, qualifying them for the 20-year exemption period